Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 19.302794 23.291685 27.710193 32.941617 38.939250 45.572986 53.436768
2025-03-30 13.135901 18.218058 24.464942 32.592574 42.762208 54.936125 70.468242
2025-04-06 10.453987 16.135559 23.685344 34.197292 48.171144 65.807837 89.409341
2025-04-13 7.428009 12.770389 20.436164 31.821664 47.827447 69.013626 98.580447
2025-04-20 6.074551 11.433819 19.625292 32.435081 51.243465 77.056920 114.227726
2025-04-27 5.111690 10.465503 19.133249 33.322440 54.958246 85.583541 130.860123
2025-05-04 4.401891 9.750815 18.881424 34.456112 59.009271 94.708918 148.693131
2025-05-11 3.750012 8.988545 18.408936 35.127469 62.328342 102.880149 165.493167
2025-05-18 3.085243 8.044894 17.464493 34.875348 64.118083 108.813240 179.253957
2025-05-25 2.442575 6.983812 16.129131 33.769355 64.384268 112.375897 189.587938
2025-06-01 2.005477 6.255623 15.291818 33.407750 65.778972 117.664767 202.652986
2025-06-08 1.560327 5.379256 14.009528 32.062604 65.355880 120.002282 211.227215
2025-06-15 1.367417 5.125604 14.053680 33.376760 69.910841 130.997814 234.481446
2025-06-22 1.077744 4.516038 13.233150 32.936637 71.372341 137.132463 250.560003
2025-06-29 0.959344 4.367619 13.427470 34.549211 76.665568 149.882100 277.750199
2025-07-06 0.668011 3.532760 11.808190 32.153474 74.252228 149.412202 283.399145
2025-07-13 0.561034 3.286471 11.605384 32.771997 77.613299 159.018487 306.005814
2025-07-20 0.480655 3.104210 11.533910 33.666738 81.562234 169.822155 331.008643
2025-07-27 0.419300 2.971250 11.571531 34.809787 86.072383 181.811664 358.437632
2025-08-03 0.354507 2.786825 11.422390 35.486668 89.665149 192.289462 383.637872
2025-08-10 0.280281 2.505686 10.918510 35.232475 91.291876 199.228826 402.955137
2025-08-17 0.206046 2.159280 10.117507 34.117357 90.988357 202.544813 416.029553
2025-08-24 0.159021 1.929037 9.636167 33.752756 92.253679 208.829498 434.524035